{"rules":{"total_usd":100000,"horizon_days":30,"max_action_types":3},"formula":"cost = quantity x (unit_cost + recurring_per_day x max(0, horizon_days - lead_days))","catalog":{"columns":["action_type_id","name","unit","unit_cost_usd","recurring_usd_per_day","lead_days","live_days","unit_total_usd","downtime_minutes","quantity_limit","incompatibility_group","notes"],"data":{"action_type_id":["A-MOVE-MACHINE","A-MOVE-BANK","A-REPLACE-LEASE","A-REPLACE-BUY","A-TECH-SHIFT","A-PREVENTIVE","A-INSPECT","A-WAYFINDING","A-COMP-PILOT","A-COMP-CHANGE","A-PROMO","A-SURVEY","A-HOLD"],"name":["Relocate one machine","Relocate a whole bank","Replace a machine with a leased new title","Replace a machine with a purchased new title","Add one technician to a shift for 30 days","Preventive maintenance sweep for one manufacturer","Machine inspection and paytable verification","Wayfinding and signage refresh for a zone","Comp policy pilot with control group","Change comp redemption rate floor-wide","Property promotion weekend","Expanded guest intercept survey","Preserve budget"],"unit":["machine","bank","machine","machine","technician_shift","manufacturer","machine","zone","pilot","policy","event","month","none"],"unit_cost_usd":[1800.0,9500.0,2500.0,22000.0,11520.0,9000.0,1200.0,7500.0,4000.0,1500.0,15000.0,3500.0,0.0],"recurring_usd_per_day":[0.0,0.0,55.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0],"lead_days":[2,5,14,21,7,7,1,10,5,3,14,7,0],"live_days":[28,25,16,9,23,23,29,20,25,27,16,23,30],"unit_total_usd":[1800.0,9500.0,3380.0,22000.0,11520.0,9000.0,1200.0,7500.0,4000.0,1500.0,15000.0,3500.0,0.0],"downtime_minutes":[180,480,360,360,0,90,120,0,0,0,0,0,0],"quantity_limit":[24,3,20,10,3,3,15,2,1,1,2,1,1],"incompatibility_group":["same_machine","same_machine","same_machine","same_machine",null,null,null,null,"comp_policy","comp_policy",null,null,null],"notes":["Moves happen at a gaming-day boundary to an empty or swapped slot.","All machines in the bank move together.","Lease runs for the remainder of the horizon.","Capital cost charged to this budget in full.","8 h x 30 days at the supplied labor rate.","90 minutes downtime per machine, scheduled in quiet hours.","Outcome is information, not a guaranteed finding.","Signage and sightline changes; no construction.","Design, training and tracking only; comp costs still flow through POS cogs.","Point cost per comp dollar can be set between 5 and 20.","Marketing, prizes and staffing.","Triples the monthly sample.","A valid recommendation."]}},"recommended":{"columns":["action_type_id","name","quantity","targets","cost_usd","effect_lo_usd","effect_mid_usd","effect_hi_usd","rationale","measurement","uncertainty","evidence"],"data":{"action_type_id":["A-INSPECT","A-WAYFINDING","A-MOVE-MACHINE"],"name":["Machine inspection and paytable verification","Wayfinding and signage refresh for a zone","Relocate one machine"],"quantity":[1,1,6],"targets":["M-1158","Z-B40","M-1252, M-1265, M-1009, M-1181, M-1006, M-1238"],"cost_usd":[1200.0,7500.0,10800.0],"effect_lo_usd":[0.0,5260.7424,1844.9303],"effect_mid_usd":[2897.1761,13151.856,3399.7587],"effect_hi_usd":[5794.3522,26303.7121,3870.3975],"rationale":["Hold far below configured setting in both halves of the period (survives 10% FDR).","Z-B40 has the lowest coin-in/hr on the floor and fell further while walkway W-ENT-B40 was closed (Mar 3 - Apr 7).","Controlled location test: swap 3 of our low-effect machines in busier spots with 3 of the manager's quiet-spot machines. Settles whether play follows the spot before paying to replace machines in quiet spots."],"measurement":["Technician verifies the paytable/config against game_math; then compare 30-day hold to configured.","Z-B40 share of floor coin-in and zone traffic, 20 live days vs. the prior 30 (difference-in-differences vs. Z-BAR).","Pooled slope of log play change on log spot change over 6 moves, each against a matched unmoved machine in the same bank, over the first 16 operating days after the move. Planned 90% CI on the slope about +/-0.14."],"uncertainty":["Inspection is information: it may confirm a config difference or find nothing (low = $0).","Signage lift of 2-10% of zone theo is an assumption, not estimated from this data.","Theo range uses the natural-experiment slope and its 90% CI. The manager's quiet-spot machines are low hold, so a swap gains less theo than play."],"evidence":["/floor?machine=M-1158","/demand?zone=Z-B40","/model?focus=ranking-compare"]}},"pool":{"columns":["action_type_id","name","quantity","targets","cost_usd","effect_lo_usd","effect_mid_usd","effect_hi_usd","rationale","measurement","uncertainty","evidence"],"data":{"action_type_id":["A-INSPECT","A-REPLACE-LEASE","A-WAYFINDING","A-MOVE-MACHINE"],"name":["Machine inspection and paytable verification","Replace a machine with a leased new title","Wayfinding and signage refresh for a zone","Relocate one machine"],"quantity":[1,10,1,6],"targets":["M-1158","M-1154, M-1048, M-1006, M-1184, M-1008, M-1066, M-1162, M-1274, M-1286, M-1045","Z-B40","M-1252, M-1265, M-1009, M-1181, M-1006, M-1238"],"cost_usd":[1200.0,33800.0,7500.0,10800.0],"effect_lo_usd":[0.0,1009.5134,5260.7424,1844.9303],"effect_mid_usd":[2897.1761,2019.0269,13151.856,3399.7587],"effect_hi_usd":[5794.3522,4038.0538,26303.7121,3870.3975],"rationale":["Hold far below configured setting in both halves of the period (survives 10% FDR).","Lowest shrunk machine effect: draws less play than its spot and game predict, upper 90% bound < 1.","Z-B40 has the lowest coin-in/hr on the floor and fell further while walkway W-ENT-B40 was closed (Mar 3 - Apr 7).","Controlled location test: swap 3 of our low-effect machines in busier spots with 3 of the manager's quiet-spot machines. Settles whether play follows the spot before paying to replace machines in quiet spots."],"measurement":["Technician verifies the paytable/config against game_math; then compare 30-day hold to configured.","Compare coin-in/available hr of each replacement to its location expectation for 16 live days vs. the other bank machines.","Z-B40 share of floor coin-in and zone traffic, 20 live days vs. the prior 30 (difference-in-differences vs. Z-BAR).","Pooled slope of log play change on log spot change over 6 moves, each against a matched unmoved machine in the same bank, over the first 16 operating days after the move. Planned 90% CI on the slope about +/-0.14."],"uncertainty":["Inspection is information: it may confirm a config difference or find nothing (low = $0).","Assumes a new title closes 25-100% of the gap to its location's expectation.","Signage lift of 2-10% of zone theo is an assumption, not estimated from this data.","Theo range uses the natural-experiment slope and its 90% CI. The manager's quiet-spot machines are low hold, so a swap gains less theo than play."],"evidence":["/floor?machine=M-1158","/?focus=ours","/demand?zone=Z-B40","/model?focus=ranking-compare"]}},"optimizer_pick":["A-INSPECT","A-MOVE-MACHINE","A-WAYFINDING"],"sensitivity":{"columns":["scenario","label","plan","value_usd","cost_usd","changed"],"data":{"scenario":["base","A-INSPECT:lo","A-INSPECT:hi","A-INSPECT:down","A-INSPECT:up","A-REPLACE-LEASE:lo","A-REPLACE-LEASE:hi","A-REPLACE-LEASE:down","A-REPLACE-LEASE:up","A-WAYFINDING:lo","A-WAYFINDING:hi","A-WAYFINDING:down","A-WAYFINDING:up","A-MOVE-MACHINE:lo","A-MOVE-MACHINE:hi","A-MOVE-MACHINE:down","A-MOVE-MACHINE:up","all:lo","all:hi","voi:peer","voi:0"],"label":["Base case (mid effects)","Machine inspection and paytable verification: low end","Machine inspection and paytable verification: high end","Machine inspection and paytable verification: mid -50%","Machine inspection and paytable verification: mid +50%","Replace a machine with a leased new title: low end","Replace a machine with a leased new title: high end","Replace a machine with a leased new title: mid -50%","Replace a machine with a leased new title: mid +50%","Wayfinding and signage refresh for a zone: low end","Wayfinding and signage refresh for a zone: high end","Wayfinding and signage refresh for a zone: mid -50%","Wayfinding and signage refresh for a zone: mid +50%","Relocate one machine: low end","Relocate one machine: high end","Relocate one machine: mid -50%","Relocate one machine: mid +50%","Every line at its low end","Every line at its high end","Information value, peer calibration","Information value counted as $0"],"plan":["A-INSPECT + A-MOVE-MACHINE + A-WAYFINDING","A-MOVE-MACHINE + A-WAYFINDING","A-INSPECT + A-MOVE-MACHINE + A-WAYFINDING","A-INSPECT + A-MOVE-MACHINE + A-WAYFINDING","A-INSPECT + A-MOVE-MACHINE + A-WAYFINDING","A-INSPECT + A-MOVE-MACHINE + A-WAYFINDING","A-INSPECT + A-MOVE-MACHINE + A-WAYFINDING","A-INSPECT + A-MOVE-MACHINE + A-WAYFINDING","A-INSPECT + A-MOVE-MACHINE + A-WAYFINDING","A-INSPECT + A-MOVE-MACHINE + A-WAYFINDING","A-INSPECT + A-MOVE-MACHINE + A-WAYFINDING","A-INSPECT + A-MOVE-MACHINE + A-WAYFINDING","A-INSPECT + A-MOVE-MACHINE + A-WAYFINDING","A-INSPECT + A-MOVE-MACHINE + A-WAYFINDING","A-INSPECT + A-MOVE-MACHINE + A-WAYFINDING","A-INSPECT + A-MOVE-MACHINE + A-WAYFINDING","A-INSPECT + A-MOVE-MACHINE + A-WAYFINDING","A-MOVE-MACHINE + A-WAYFINDING","A-INSPECT + A-MOVE-MACHINE + A-WAYFINDING","A-INSPECT + A-MOVE-MACHINE + A-WAYFINDING","A-INSPECT + A-MOVE-MACHINE + A-WAYFINDING"],"value_usd":[28652.27,25755.09,31549.45,27203.68,30100.86,28652.27,28652.27,28652.27,28652.27,20761.16,41804.13,22076.34,35228.2,27097.44,29122.91,26952.39,30352.15,16309.15,45171.94,27766.0,19448.79],"cost_usd":[19500.0,18300.0,19500.0,19500.0,19500.0,19500.0,19500.0,19500.0,19500.0,19500.0,19500.0,19500.0,19500.0,19500.0,19500.0,19500.0,19500.0,18300.0,19500.0,19500.0,19500.0],"changed":[false,true,false,false,false,false,false,false,false,false,false,false,false,false,false,false,false,true,false,false,false]}},"total_usd":19500.0,"kept_usd":80500.0,"effect":{"lo":7105.672709956501,"mid":19448.790871433397,"hi":35968.46182366464},"errors":[],"move_test":{"pairs":[{"ours":"M-1252","manager":"M-1265","spot_ours":195.4669116984842,"spot_manager":92.95111332457992},{"ours":"M-1009","manager":"M-1181","spot_ours":225.8118160703428,"spot_manager":95.64901263867691},{"ours":"M-1006","manager":"M-1238","spot_ours":269.2492854088807,"spot_manager":141.06651510143493}],"controls":{"M-1252":"M-1218","M-1265":"M-1014","M-1009":"M-1020","M-1181":"M-1230","M-1006":"M-1107","M-1238":"M-1232"},"sizing":[{"swaps":1,"moves":2,"cost_usd":3600.0,"halfwidth_noise_only":0.18271147785318242,"halfwidth":0.23719314630592506,"halfwidth_tau_peer":0.47866240803555377,"se":0.1464136513956063,"theo_lo_usd":1084.229182442084,"theo_mid_usd":1975.760241328471,"theo_hi_usd":2251.4523443034523},{"swaps":2,"moves":4,"cost_usd":7200.0,"halfwidth_noise_only":0.11806564431387417,"halfwidth":0.16364985729195236,"halfwidth_tau_peer":0.33533593992460153,"se":0.10030635884619753,"theo_lo_usd":2325.2084343449114,"theo_mid_usd":4332.300300395708,"theo_hi_usd":4982.967153975655},{"swaps":3,"moves":6,"cost_usd":10800.0,"halfwidth_noise_only":0.10452665511110976,"halfwidth":0.14142225389088167,"halfwidth_tau_peer":0.28591292608694374,"se":0.08518430506304735,"theo_lo_usd":1844.9302900669982,"theo_mid_usd":3399.7587167372635,"theo_hi_usd":3870.3975142723743},{"swaps":4,"moves":8,"cost_usd":14400.0,"halfwidth_noise_only":0.09644078586557933,"halfwidth":0.12361334179569963,"halfwidth_tau_peer":0.24663732435089197,"se":0.07536009685409195,"theo_lo_usd":1165.4894384223471,"theo_mid_usd":2053.4116195907163,"theo_hi_usd":2259.2429902509157},{"swaps":5,"moves":10,"cost_usd":18000.0,"halfwidth_noise_only":0.0854368847849328,"halfwidth":0.11005319378000483,"halfwidth_tau_peer":0.213031779542959,"se":0.06754243305043281,"theo_lo_usd":407.5407914426618,"theo_mid_usd":568.5477172426731,"theo_hi_usd":491.86569850993004}],"pick":{"swaps":3,"moves":6,"cost_usd":10800.0,"halfwidth_noise_only":0.10452665511110976,"halfwidth":0.14142225389088167,"halfwidth_tau_peer":0.28591292608694374,"se":0.08518430506304735,"theo_lo_usd":1844.9302900669982,"theo_mid_usd":3399.7587167372635,"theo_hi_usd":3870.3975142723743},"voi_usd":9203.479198940746,"voi_usd_tau_peer":8317.209975887476,"power":{"post_days":16,"noise_sd":0.11815143068213434,"spot_sd":0.023160288888074376,"tau":0.12659242230869228,"tau_peer":0.37946046819976303,"observed_design_halfwidth_noise_only":0.2380435148837442},"prior_beta":{"mean":0.8951412647097193,"sd":0.38959789838090386},"posterior_sd":0.08321834283657939,"followon":{"days":90,"cost_per_machine_usd":6680.0,"candidates":["M-1008","M-1017","M-1045","M-1048","M-1050","M-1053","M-1056","M-1064","M-1065","M-1066","M-1068","M-1078","M-1084","M-1086","M-1126","M-1127","M-1139","M-1143","M-1145","M-1154","M-1162","M-1164","M-1173","M-1179","M-1184","M-1211","M-1227","M-1228","M-1231","M-1239","M-1241","M-1244","M-1262","M-1263","M-1274","M-1286"],"value_at_prior_mean_usd":-98166.19435157973,"value_at_beta0_usd":84996.70987961568},"comparison":{"move_test":{"cost_usd":10800.0,"theo_mid_usd":3399.7587167372635,"voi_usd":9203.479198940746,"value_usd":12603.23791567801,"voi_usd_tau_peer":8317.209975887476,"value_usd_tau_peer":11716.96869262474},"lowest":{"action_type_id":"A-REPLACE-LEASE","cost_usd":33800.0,"theo_mid_usd":2019.026887567165,"voi_usd":0.0,"value_usd":2019.026887567165},"replaces":"A-REPLACE-LEASE","errors":[],"included":true,"included_tau_peer":true}},"version":"v1"}